2014, Week 26: 2 SCUD Missiles Fired.

Earlier today…

There are other blogs with tons of details on the flight and damage range of these missiles, so we won’t go into that here. One thing you might have noticed was the implication of North Korea’s statement against (Xi, Jin-Ping)‘s visit to South Korea. But we doubt that’s the case, because they could have fired it off the West Coast –as is customary to do whenever North Korea is angry at China– at a higher trajectory.

Usually east coast launches are conducted because there is a lot of space, but also because it’s towards the direction of Japan. However, there is a group of Japanese people visiting graves of their passed away loved ones in North Korea:

Strangely, the Japanese don’t seemed to be phased by this (publicly), and say that the agreements they had already agreed upon won’t be changed:

Does that mean we should believe the North’s official line that this is “just a routine military exercise”?

This MIGHT actually be a protest against China’s #1 man visiting South Korea, because if they went with the customary West Coast, to avoid any casualties, they would have had to declare clearance ranges ahead of time. This doesn’t give them the element of surprise, which seems to be (Kim, Jong-un)‘s flare for dramatics. Also, it means disturbing fishing activities for North, South Korea, and Chinese fishermen. This is especially not good, since a lot of North Korea’s seafood exportscome from fish captured off the (Yellow Sea), and processed in (Nampo), a city off the mouth of the <(TaeDong River), which leads to (PyongYang). In other words, the direct capital gained from these seafood exports to China, is such a significant revenue stream, 평양PyongYang doesn’t want to mess with that. So if this is a statement against China’s leader visiting South Korea, the East Sea looks like its only option.

Or, this may be a follow-up to their KCNA piece criticizing Seth Rogen’s New Movie, “The Interview”.

So if it’s a protest against Americans, they would have to fire a long-range missile OVER Japan’s airspace. However, that would REALLY piss off the Japanese, just as the North Koreans are having direct talks with them to improve relations. So, I guess that might explain the use of short-range missiles instead?

What’s a protesting North Korean to do?

So maybe it’s not a protest? Maybe it’s a follow-up to them showing off their new guided missile on Friday –suspected to be a KN-09:

Earlier this month, they featured a video claiming they successfully shot a KH-35 anti-surface cruise missile:



COROLLARY: June 30, 2014
Nicholas Hamisevicz wrote a good article explaining what the timing of the missile shots are for:
http://blog.keia.org/2014/06/june-2014-smaller-meetings-but-bigger-fish-to-fry-in-inter-korean-relations


UPDATE: July 2, 2014
Week 27: 2 KN-09s fired Wednesday, off North Korea.
http://www.nknews.org/2014/07/analysis-n-korean-tactical-guided-missile-tests

In light of these launches, Japan is still expected to weigh in on whether or not to ease sanctions against North Korea:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/02/us-japan-northkorea-idUSKBN0F70NK20140702



UPDATE: July 3, 2014
Japan wil ease SOME sanctions against North Korea:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/us-japan-northkorea-idUSKBN0F70NK20140703
The sanctions to be lifted are separate from those imposed by Japan and other U.N. members after Pyongyang’s first nuclear test in 2006 that prohibit U.N. member states from arms trade with Pyongyang and from financial transactions that facilitate such trade.



COROLLARY: JULY 4, 2014
Hwasong-6 = (Scud-C). The two missiles fired earlier a couple of weeks ago. The “Rice and Iron” Blog pointed out some inconsistencies in the images of the missile shots:
http://nkfood.wordpress.com/2014/07/04/june-29th-hwasong-6-imagery

阿江

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